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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.